Severe Weather Threat for Sunday Night into Monday Morning 4-30 into 5-1

As of 1:45 P.M. April 28, 2017

According to the National Weather Service, Weather Forecast Office in Birmingham, AL, Elmore County has been listed in a Marginal Risk Area for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday morning. Primary threats will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and brief tornadoes. The primary timing for this event is Sunday evening into Monday morning.

Below you will find the latest WFO graphics and HWO graphic. Also listed is the statement from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. Please be aware there will be changes to this forecast.

         

No Hazardous Weather Outlook statement has been issued as of yet. This is the statement from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK

SPC AC 280728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook 

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0228 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

   Valid 301200Z – 011200Z

   …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

   THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

   …THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL

   GULF COAST TO THE MIDWEST…

   …SUMMARY…

   Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the lower

   and middle Mississippi Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging

   winds will likely be the primary threat, but large hail and a couple

   tornadoes may also be possible.

   …Synopsis…

   A rather expansive mid-level trough and associated closed low will

   slowly advance eastward across much of the central US. As it does

   so, the low should continue to deepen as it lifts towards the

   Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, ridging will remain established across

   parts of the Mid-Atlantic, extending northwestward to the Great

   Lakes.

   …Portions of the Mississippi Valley…

   Multiple areas of convection are likely to be ongoing across the

   region Sunday morning, as a surface low evolves northeast towards

  Iowa/Illinois and a trailing cold front advances east across the

   Mississippi Valley. Across the Ark-La-Miss region, a few of these

   early storms may be severe, with damaging winds likely the main

   threat. Downstream destabilization through the day and strong

   effective shear will likely favor intensification of a band of

   storms pushing eastward during the afternoon and evening. Despite

   strong effective shear, front-parallel vectors suggest mainly linear

   modes, with an attendant threat for damaging winds and perhaps a few

   instances of severe hail. Despite this linear mode, strong low-level

   shear may support a couple line-embedded tornadoes as well.

   Farther north towards the mid Mississippi Valley, shear vectors may

   be more orthogonal to the front, potentially favoring slightly more

   discrete storm modes (which would support a greater tornado/large

   hail potential). However, convection Saturday night into Sunday

   morning may cast a broad area of rainfall/cloud cover across this

   region, reducing the potential for considerable destabilization and

   precluding a northward expansion of the Slight Risk at this time.