Julie Lawrence

Potential for Severe Weather on Wednesday, 4-29-20

Partners,

Overview: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama on Wednesday.

Changes from previous forecast: Introduced slight risk area for locations roughly along and south of the Interstate 59 corridor. Trimmed the marginal risk area out of portions of our far northwest counties.

Highlights:

Where:

  • All of Central Alabama except our far northwest

When:

  • Noon through 8 pm Wednesday 04/29/20

Threats:

  • Damaging winds to 60 mph
  • Quarter sized hail
  • Tornadoes are possible

As of Tuesday, April 21, 2020: River Levels Are Looking Better

  • Coosa River at Wetumpka- currently at 37.55 feet.
    • Forecast shows it has already crested and will continue to drop to below “Action” stage sometime on Tuesday night.
  • Tallapoosa at Milstead- currently at 40.8 feet
    • Forecast shows it has already crested and is scheduled to drop out of “Minor” flood stage sometime on Tuesday.  It is forecast to drop out of “Action” flood stage sometime on Friday.
    • 40 feet Extensive flooding of pasture lands in the area occurs.
  • Tallapoosa at Water Plant– currently at 32.12 feet.
    • Forecast to crest on Tuesday at 32.1 feet, in “Moderate” flood stage.
    • Forecast to drop below “Moderate” flood stage sometime on Wednesday.
    • Forecast to drop below “Minor” flood stage sometime on Thursday.
    • 25 feet Lower Wetumpka Road starts to flood. Extensive flooding of low lands occurs and livestock and farm equipment should be moved to higher ground.
    • 28 feet expect Dozier Rd in Montgomery County to flood and the road and Emerald Mountain Expressway to close
    • 32 feet Some residences along Lower Wetumpka Road…Brooks Road and Anderson Road become threatened. At higher stages evacuations may become necessary at Red Eagle Honor Farm.
  • Alabama River at Montgomery– currently at 38.9 feet
    • Forecast to crest on Tuesday at 38.9 ft, in Minor flood stage.
    • Forecast to drop below “Minor” flood stage sometime on Wednesday.
    • 45 feet Residential flooding begins in portions of North Montgomery. Evacuations will likely be need at stages around 50 feet or higher.

As of Monday, April 20, 2020: Due to the heavy rainfall over the past couple of days, the river levels in Elmore County are expected to reach flood or near flood levels.

  • Coosa River at Wetumpka- forecasted to crest on Tuesday morning at 44.8 feet in Action stage and less than one foot from Minor stage
    • 35 feet Gold Star Park Boat Ramp and the River Walk are covered. Low lying farm land near the confluence of the Tallapoosa and Coosa Rivers begins to flood.
    • 45 feet Extensive flooding of farm lands begins.
    • 47 feet Flooding of some mobile homes upstream from Wetumpka begins. In addition water begins to enter the basements of some businesses in Wetumpka. At 48 feet some street flooding begins on the west bank of the river.
  • Tallapoosa at Milstead- forecasted to crest on Monday at 40.5 feet in Minor flood stage.
    • 40 feet Extensive flooding of pasture lands in the area occurs.
  • Tallapoosa at Water Plant- forecasted to crest on Monday evening at 31.9 feet, in Minor flood stage and less than one foot from Moderate stage
    • 25 feet Lower Wetumpka Road starts to flood. Extensive flooding of low lands occurs and livestock and farm equipment should be moved to higher ground.
    • 28 feet expect Dozier Rd in Montgomery County to flood and the road and Emerald Mountain Expressway to close
    • 32 feet Some residences along Lower Wetumpka Road…Brooks Road and Anderson Road become threatened. At higher stages evacuations may become necessary at Red Eagle Honor Farm.
  • Alabama River at Montgomery- forecasted to crest on Tuesday morning at 44.6 feet, in Minor flood stage and less than one foot from Moderate stage
    • 45 feet Residential flooding begins in portions of North Montgomery. Evacuations will likely be need at stages around 50 feet or higher.

 

 

Potential Severe Weather Threat Easter Sunday, 4-12-20

Good Friday everyone,

Below and attached is the NWS Birmingham’s most recent forecast for the severe weather on Sunday. Everyone is in the “Enhanced” or even higher risk area of “Moderate.” I expect this model to continue to change and adjust over the next two days, so please continue to monitor the forecast. We will share every update that we get from NWS Birmingham for today, Saturday, and Sunday morning.

I don’t want to scare people, but I want all of you to understand the seriousness and potential danger of this storm system. They are forecasting large, long-track tornadoes, and that is a very dangerous and deadly forecast for anywhere it hits. STAY WEATHER AWARE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT!

For any churches or faith based organizations holding services, especially for Easter, I HIGHLY encourage you to consider doing the service early on Sunday so people can get home in plenty of time. And of course, follow all the Governor and State Health Officer’s guidelines for social distancing.

We have shared the information about Elmore County’s Safer Places Program and what the plans are for activating them on Sunday. Please, Please, Please, share that information with as many people as you can, and if anyone doesn’t feel safe when the weather is bearing down on Sunday, have them go to a Safer Place.

HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET NOTIFICATIONS: NOAA WEATHER RADIO, APPS ON SMARTPHONES, RADIO, TELEVISION, ETC! Do NOT depend on Outdoor Sirens alone!

Overview: Severe storms are likely on Sunday.

Changes from previous forecast: Upgraded risk category for the western half of the area.

Highlights:

Where:
• All of Central Alabama
When:
• Sunday from 1 PM to 1 AM
Threats:
• Tornadoes, strong long-track tornadoes possible
• Damaging winds up to 70 mph possible
• Large hail up to golf ball size possible

weather.gov/bmx | @NWSBirmingham