Severe Weather Threat for Elmore County – Sunday, March 2, 2019

As of 4:45 P.M., March 2, 2019

This is the most recent update from the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama, about the Treat of Severe Weather in Elmore County for tomorrow afternoon, Sunday, March 3, 2019.

Please be monitoring your weather sources for updates as they become available. As always Elmore County EMA will be monitoring this situation and updating you as changes become available.

A small portions of Elmore County have been placed in the ENHANCED Threat Area, though most of the County remains in the Slight Threat Area. Please find the graphic below that shows the treat area and timing of these storms.

SEVERE THREAT

Severe storms are still expected on Sunday. Several uncertainties remain regarding the severe threat, the biggest being the northward extent of the threat.

Changes from previous forecast:

1) Upgraded to ENHANCED Risk across SE counties – models are really zoning in on the areas along/south of I-85 as the highest threat area for damaging winds and tornadoes.

2) Removed a few more NW counties from the severe threat – overall threat continues to shift slightly southward.

Uncertainties:

1) Warm front – Several models continue to keep the warm front pretty far south (roughly I-85). However, due to some model differences & other factors, we have continued to keep a risk of severe weather mentioned at least as far north as the I-20 corridor.

2) Timing – The cold front is expected to re-orient itself as it moves across Central AL. This means it will enter as a more north-south oriented boundary and then transition to more of an east-west oriented boundary. This makes it a bit more difficult for timing placement. Expect some adjustments to the timing with tomorrow morning’s update.

3) Development ahead of the main front – this is possible across the SE counties, but the main severe threat remains with the line of storms ahead of the front.

FLOOD THREAT

Generally 1″ to 2″ of rain (with locally higher amounts) is forecast through Sunday night, with the highest amounts across roughly the southeastern half of Central AL.

Rainfall Notes:

1) Quick-hitting system with no prolonged period of rain.

2) Widespread flooding not expected. However, with saturated soils, some isolated minor flooding is possible, mainly in low-lying and/or poor drainage areas.

3) No worsening of river flooding in the north & west expected, but recession may slow briefly.

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